A coin flying in the air. That seems to be the climate for the countryside, and for the Argentine economy, due to the prominence that agro-industry has in it; although instead of face and mint it can fall on dry side, with s, as it happened last year, or on a wet side, as it is happening in this agricultural campaign. So, now that the water that was scarce last year came in abundance, many wonder how it will impact in terms of pesos and dollars for the national accounts. It is a concern that logically involves the Government, because the agro-industrial value chain accounts for half of exports and, through retentions, is key to fiscal balance.
The partial balance indicates that in the case of rains, it is better that they exceed what is missing. Because, even with the losses due to ruined crops, less planted area and reduced yields, it is expected that the harvest of the main grains will contribute a Gross Production Value of about US $ 28,000 million this year.
The account is thus because, beyond the initial metaphor, and although climate change has shown almost opposite poles between one campaign and another, the effects on the lots are not the same in the entire Argentine territory. In effect, water excesses are wreaking havoc in the NEA, but in other regions good soil moisture is favoring the development of crops.
It is still premature to assess the damages and yields, experts agree. “Still not ruling out further cuts depending on the evolution of the climate,” warned the latest Agricultural Weekly Outlook (PAS) of the Grain Exchange of Buenos Aires. But in the logical pretense of putting numbers to the disaster that has epicenter in the north of Santa Fe, northeast of Santiago and south of Chaco, and other significant damages in Corrientes and some areas of the Buenos Aires province, Coninagro estimated in “US $ 2 billion the losses of the sector sojero “and reflected that 2.4 million hectares are affected, 13.8% of the total area planned for the oilseed.
Meanwhile, the Rosario Stock Exchange calculated that only in the north of Santa Fe can be lost for a value of 230 million dollars (about 100 million for corn, the same between the first and second soybeans, plus 17 million due to effects on sunflower, 6 million on cotton and 3 million on sorghum).
It must be borne in mind that the area seriously affected represents around 10% of the agricultural area of Argentina, and is not located among those with the highest productivity. Therefore, better yields in other areas could compensate for the cuts.
However, the film would have a happy ending; clear that in global terms, without ignoring the unfortunate damage in the Litoral. For now, the harvest of wheat and barley has already closed with 23.1 (19 and 4.1, respectively) million tons, which will translate into a contribution of almost 4 billion dollars in exports. “Adding wheat and flour, exports of the wheat chain would contribute about 3.175 million dollars. If the barley is added, the fine campaign would contribute with 3.875 million genuine currencies, an increase of 35% compared to the previous cycle “, highlighted from the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange.
Corn is another candidate to provide many better numbers than last year. It is a crop that has great empathy with water and the throes that grow vigorously in a wide region of the center of the country are already beating. In many areas, the 10 tons per hectare would be exceeded, with which the national average would once again move towards a record, above 8.5 tons per hectare. A total of 45 million tons are expected, especially for the addition of the early lots, which will be collected in April. At a value of US $ 150, the tonne means US $ 6,000 million.
On the other hand, soybean was practically finished, although it is clear that in some cases it would have to be reseeded, and in others it could not. But if the situation does not complicate more than expected, the 55 million tons of soybeans, at a value of US $ 330 per